Here’s what Andrea Chen, Principal Industry Analyst, Media and Entertainment for Google, predicts:
- Google can predict box-office takings with 94 per cent accuracy as early as four weeks prior to a film’s opening weekend
- That moviegoers consult as many as 13 sources before deciding which film to watch
- Searches for movie trailers made four weeks before a film’s premier will also be used to determine opening weekend revenue
- The trailer-search data, combined with seasonal information, as well as a film’s ‘franchise status’ can predict the opening weekend box office takings with 94 per cent accuracy
- In the seven-day window prior to a film's release date, if a film receives 250,000 search queries more than a similar film, the film with more queries is likely to perform up to $4.3 million better during opening weekend
- When looking at search ad click volume, if a film has 20,000 more paid clicks than a similar film, it is expected to bring in up to $7.5 million more during opening weekend.
Big upcoming Bollywood releases:
Chennai Express – Shah Rukh Khan, Deepika Padukone
Dabangg 3 - Salman Khan
Raanjhanaa - Sonam Kapoor, Dhanush
Krrish 3 - Hrithik Roshan, Katrina Kaif
Dhoom 3 - Aamir Khan, Katrina Kaif
Bullet Raja – Saif Ali Khan
What if Google predicts - amd mind you, a month in advance - that SRK's film Chennai Express is not going to make it big? Or for perfectionist Aamir's Dhoom 3?
However, there’s some good news as well. Since the new Google model will bring to the fore the success rate of the film well ahead of time, Bollywood publicists and marketers can use these results and make quick-fixes in their publicity strategy to make the film work. Relieved, are they, now?
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